Rachel Martin talks to Jean about expectations for the second summit between President Trump and North Korea's leader.
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CNN: Trump Kim summit: What does a win for North Korea look like in Hanoi? →
Secure a political declaration to end the Korean War
Jean H. Lee, director Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy
The biggest prizes for Kim will be diplomatic as well as economic.
Kim, like Trump, craves a big dramatic and historic moment in which the two leaders, foes for seven decades, stand side by side to declare a political end to the Korean War. To be clear: Such a declaration would not serve as a peace treaty formally ending the war. But it would be enough for Kim to take home to his people as a propaganda victory.
Ending the Korean War was a goal neither his father nor grandfather accomplished before dying; to accomplish that task would cement his authority inside North Korea as a master statesman and military strategist.
Such a declaration would allow Kim to turn the country's focus away from war and toward the economy; it also would start the lengthy process of negotiating a formal peace treaty with China, the United Nations and the United States.
More importantly, Kim will be seeking economic concessions in return for rapprochement and promises to give up elements of his nuclear program. A lifting of crippling UN sanctions imposed on North Korea is a priority for Kim. Once sanctions are eased, South Korea in particular is poised to restart joint economic projects that could serve as an economic lifeline to Pyongyang as well as to rebuild North Korea's decaying infrastructure. In addition, Seoul must wait for concrete nuclear concessions from North Korea to justify lifting its own bilateral sanctions in place since 2010.
For Kim, a successful roadmap to denuclearization in Hanoi would pave the way for North Korea's return to the international fold, politically and economically, while delaying the complete relinquishing of his prized nuclear assets for many years to come.
Discussing the upcoming Trump-Kim summit on VoA's Washington Talk TV show →
2차 미국 정상회담 일정이 공개됐는데, 이번 회담에서는 실질적인 진전이 이뤄져야 한다는 기대가 커지고 있습니다. 비핵화와 상응조치를 두고 미북 간 어떤 타결이 가능할 지 분석합니다. 회담 개최국 베트남은 북한이 선택할 경제 개방과 외교 관계 개선의 모델이 될 지 살펴봅니다. 진행: 조은정 / 대담: 스콧 스나이더(미 외교협회 미한정책국장), 진 리(우드로 윌슨센터 한국국장) #VOA #워싱턴톡 #2차미북정상회담 #베트남 #하노이 #비핵화 #비건 #김혁철 Originally published at - https://www.voakorea.com/a/4779663.html
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Washington Post: Documentary shows Trump saluting North Korean general
Though only a brief interaction, it was telling that the salute was included in the documentary, according to Jean H. Lee, a North Korea scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington.
“This is a moment that will be used over and over in North Korea’s propaganda as 'proof' that the American president defers to the North Korean military,” Lee said. “It will be treated as a military victory by the North Koreans.”
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Washington Post: A North Korean propaganda film foretold proposed talks between Trump and Kim Jong Un →
The news that President Trump had accepted an offer to meet Kim Jong Un to talk about North Korean denuclearization took many people by surprise.
Thursday's announcement had come after nearly a year of rapidly increasing tension between the United States and North Korea, as Pyongyang made considerable leaps in its nuclear weapons program despite the Trump administration's “maximum pressure” strategy.
But this scenario may have been foretold. As Jeffrey Lewis, an expert on North Korea's nuclear program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey has noted, there was a preview of a similar line of events — in a North Korean propaganda film aired years ago.
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